Warning Signs
I drive from my home in the mountains down to work every morning. The drive is pleasant along a mountain highway, then through high desert, past a vivid canyon and volcanic formations, until I reach my office about 40 miles down the road.
The road twists and turns down steep grades only occasionally broken up by strait patches where you can pass or be passed by those more or less hurried. Along the way there are warning signs, “watch for ice” “Deer Crossing” “Steep Grade Ahead” and the ever present winding arrows indicating sharp curves coming up.
You can heed the warnings, or you can ignore them. Ignore them at your own peril.
This past winter I’ve seen three different cars that have slid off the side of a steep ravine and had to have cranes lift them out. They ignored the “Watch for Ice” signs. Last year I stopped to help a truck who had ignored a sharp curve sign. It slid off the road and plowed into a huge pine tree. Luckily, no one was hurt. The truck was totaled. Again, ignore warning signs at your own peril.
Our economy is suffering tremendously. Layoffs are increasing, the financial system is teetering, and people’s investments have lost substantial value. Were there any warning signs? You bet there were. Mostly they were ignored.
I remember having conversations with appraisers as the housing boom was reaching its peak. We discussed how people were getting mortgages they couldn’t possibly afford, how banks were lending against properties at 100% of value assuming they would be protected in default because values would keep increasing. More and more homes were being purchased by speculators who had no intention of living in the homes, but were just going to turn around and resell ie. flip the house.
Everyone was caught up in the euphoria of earning easy money on a stock market that could only go up, or a housing market that was doubling every couple of years. Guess what? We ignored the signs at our own peril.
If you now watch for positive signs, the signs of a beginning recovery, jump back in, you’ll be the winner this time around. Ignore them at your own peril / loss of opportunity.
